Euro 2016 - The Rise Of The Middle Nations

The draw for France 2016 is on Saturday 5PM GMT

After 2 years, 266 matches and 694 goals, the qualification for Euro 2016 is now complete, and this weekend all eyes will be on the group draw for the finals in France next summer. This will be the biggest European championship yet, with more teams than ever before along with a new tournament format. Most of the usual suspects will be there; along with France qualifying automatically as hosts, world champions Germany topped a tough group in spite of historic defeats from Ireland and Poland, Spain atoned for their dismal World Cup by easing through in Group C, and England managed a 100% record to reach the finals with 10 wins from 10 games, while Italy, Portugal and Belgium all made it through as group winners. The only notable exception is The Netherlands, who embarrassingly finished 4th in Group A, not even making it to the play-offs. But what may cause an upset, and what made qualifying for Euro 2016 so entertaining is the success of the middle nations.

When UEFA announced in 2008 the expansion of the tournament to 24 teams, the idea was simple. More qualifying berths would enable the middle nations to find a place in the finals and create extra insurance for the established teams. Euro 2016 will be bigger and better, a reflection of the growth of the international game into new territories, and the dominance of European nations on the world stage. As it turned out, most of the smaller nations would have qualified for a 16 team tournament anyway, while some of the big hitters struggled, or failed to qualify at all. This has created a petit bourgeois of teams that are breaking new ground, giving an exciting new level to European international football. Nations that used to languish in the grey no-man's-land of pot 3 or 4 seeds - Too good to be cannon fodder, but not good enough to win the group - now have the ability to qualify. Some of these nations, Wales, Austria, and Slovakia for example, have been building up to this for a number of years, whereas some countries such as Iceland and Albania have come completely out of the blue. Next summer's competition will see 5 debutants and several teams that have only qualified for a handful of previous editions. This is an exciting prospect; small nations thrown in the mix with the big guns on uncharted territory.

The Euro 2016 group stage will allow for the 3rd place team from a group to qualify for the knock out stage. Out of 6 groups, the top 4 3rd placed teams will go through to the last 16. This has been criticised as being too lenient, it is said to create ambiguity, and could possibly create a scenario where a team already knows what they need to get to progress before kick-off. This could prove problematic if, for example, 2 teams were playing one another and both needed a certain result to go through, (which has happened before.) There are flaws in the structure of the 24 team format, and the lack of symmetry will inevitably cause some discussion over how fair the system is. On the other hand, this is a lifeline for smaller nations. This gives them a much better chance to qualify for the latter rounds, creating a more varied knock out stage than previous competitions. Getting out of the group stage is beneficial for middle nations, as this will increase their UEFA co-efficient, and thus improve their rank for seeding in qualification in future tournaments. In short, it creates a fairer system and enables easier upward mobility for smaller nations.

Iceland are one of 5 nations that are appearing in their first Euro finals

The shock Greek championship of 2004, the greatest upset in football history, showed us that even on the top level of the international stage, smaller teams can go all the way. The Greeks managed to scrape through the group stages after winning just 1 game, but soon built up momentum, overcoming some of the biggest European names to claim the trophy, including France, then reigning champions. The key to their success was a heavily defensive counter attacking style that drew 3 clean sheets, mixed with a dash of good luck, and the knowledge that most of Europe was behind them. Theirs was the ultimate underdog story, the stuff dreams are made of. One of the most iconic images of recent footballing history is the tears of a teenage Cristiano Ronaldo as the Greek players celebrated in ecstasy behind him. The 2004 tournament was meant to be his glory, his country's chance to shine on home turf, and he had that snatched away by the unlikely heroes of Greece's Piratiko. Could next summer produce such a big moment? If the tournament mirrors the qualification, it is possible, even inevitable, that Euro 2016 will have smaller nations defeating the established superpowers. They will have more representation in the latter stages, and they will play with no fear. Bigger nations will have all the pressure on them to succeed, and some may buckle under the strain.

It will be a tall order for any team to beat the likes of France, Germany or Spain. These 3 nations are the pre-tournament favourites, and you would expect that they would all reach at least the quarter-finals. Belgium are also strong contenders, but past those 4, there are no guarantees. England, Portugal and Italy are always good when they turn up, but they all have patchy tournament records. This leaves a lot of slots for smaller nations. There are the established B-grade European sides that will want to have their say - Czech Republic, Sweden, Croatia, Romania, Russia and the like, but there is a strong likelihood of 1 or 2 smaller nations getting a place in the last 8. Wales, Austria, Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, all part of the new European middle class, all capable of beating big sides and causing an upset.

Cristiano's Ronaldo's Portugal suffered at the hands of the Greeks in 2004.
Could 2016 provide a similar upset?

When we watch international tournaments, we want to see big games. We want to see household names facing off against one another for their country, proud titans with years of heritage like Germany, Italy and France battling for supremacy, and domestic superstars breaking records. We want golden shimmering games of football between nations that may not meet again competitively for another generation. But we also want underdogs. We want to see the smaller nations winning, we want Albania to pull off a scrappy 1-0 over Spain, we want Northern Ireland to top their group, and we want Hungary in the quarter finals.

Whatever the outcome of Saturday's draw may be, (as an Englishman, I need damage limitation. I just want us to get to the last 16, and not get dropped in another terrifying group like we did in Brazil. Football Gods, take note, please) it's not that far-fetched to suggest that 1 of these smaller nations, these underdogs that so brazenly and regularly knocked the stuffing out of the top level sacred cows in qualifying could do it again. As Greece so emphatically proved in 2004, winning European football's biggest prize and gaining a place in the continent's elite may not be as exclusive as once thought.

Claudio Ranieri's Leicester defying all expectations

Claudio Ranieri - Leicester's ticket to mid-table safety?

It's looking rather cosy at the King Power Stadium these days. After managing to orchestrate the finest relegation comeback in Premier League history, and enjoying an emphatic start to the season, losing only 1 of their first 10 games, Leicester City find themselves in 5th place and 3 points off the top. Their performances are characterised by an irresistible never-say-die attitude that has them snatching victory from the jaws of defeat each week. This has produced some electrifying games that neutral observers have relished, and they are now everyone's favourite overachievers. They have the division's top scorer, they have arguably the best all-round player of the season so far, and they have a new manager.

Claudio Ranieri is exactly what Leicester City needs this season. Many fans disagreed with Nigel Pearson's departure in the summer. After all, he is the man who led them to their glorious title winning Championship season, and then the already legendary Great Escape of last season. While these are undoubtedly fantastic achievements, there would have been problems if Pearson had continued his tenure at the club. His actions on the touchline and bizarre press conference antics showed a glimpse of the volatile character laying underneath the media-trained exterior, and as he slowly lost the backing of the board, the respect of his players, and with a scandal behind the scenes coming at exactly the wrong time, Pearson's departure was sealed. Nigel Pearson may well have battled through and kept the ship afloat for another season, but that's all he would have achieved. Pearson is akin to Neil Warnock in that he has the Championship completely sussed and can get clubs promoted, but after that will never get out of the bottom 5 of the Premier League. Every season under Pearson would have been a relegation battle. Leicester do not want that. They want a step up.

Ranieri is that step up. He is the next stage in Leicester's evolution. He represents a sobering attitude at the club. He favours tactics and resourcefulness over brute force. He is a classy veteran of almost 30 years in the dug out, and has managed all across Europe. He is the calm, centred intelligence that Leicester need to elevate into the Premier League middle class, joining clubs such as West Ham, Stoke and Crystal Palace. So far, he's doing a very good job.

Riyad Mahrez is arguably the best player in the Premier League so far this season

For all the "Tinkerman" talk, Ranieri's tactics are simple. Leicester play a solid 4-4-2 in possession, and a flowing 4-5-1 while defending. The success of their attack is the telepathic partnership of the pacey assist specialist Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy, the classic English centre forward, non-league 3 years ago, now scoring week after week in the top flight. Vardy's goal at the weekend racks him up to a crisp 10 goals in 10 games, all while playing with a broken arm. Ranieri plays Vardy as a standard centre forward, with Okazaki, Kramarić or Ulloa playing off him in a supportive role. The pace of their forward players is exceptional; Leicester have the top 3 fastest players in the league. Behind them are two tight banks of 4, staffed by underrated, hard-working talent such as Schlupp, Drinkwater and Albrighton. A simple, effective system, and a good example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts.

They sit back and invite pressure; Leicester know they cannot go toe-to-toe with the bigger clubs in the league on quality alone, so they use their pace and strength to overpower delicate passing systems and score on the counter. The majority of their goals come from a fast break up field, with one of the forward players getting on the end of a cross and tapping in from inside the 18 yard box. They have won most of their games from goals in the 2nd half, using another key attribute - Their fitness. Leicester are one of the fittest teams in the Premier League. They enjoy more pace and strength in the final 30 minutes of each game than their opponents. The handicap of mostly conceding first isn't a problem when you're the league's comeback kings - Leicester have rescued the most points from losing positions this season. They have come back 3 times from 2-0 down to level terms. On 1 of those occasions they have gone on to win the game 3-2, the sizzling Midlands derby with Aston Villa. This must be terrifying for other clubs, knowing they may be 2 up after an hour and still go away with nothing.

By the same token, this is also a clear weakness. While Leicester City are currently the 3rd highest scorers in the league, they have shipped 17 goals, more than any other team in the top 10. They only managed to get their first clean sheet at the weekend, in a key home victory against Crystal Palace. With their free-scoring form, this doesn't seem to be much of a problem, but if Vardy and Mahrez dry up, they may find themselves slipping down the table. Another point to add is that Leicester have not played many top teams as yet. The only "big" team they have come up against so far is Arsenal, who put 5 goals past them at the King Power last month. Before the end of the year they will play Man United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton and Man City. This will provide a huge test for Leicester, and will be the pivotal era of their season. Also, injuries are always a concern with a squad of this size. Just 1 or 2 key players out and it could all unravel in weeks. While the excellent start to the season has the Foxes fans in dreamland, even the most optimistic amongst them will admit there is still a long way to go before Leicester City can start planning for next season.

Jamie Vardy's attacking stats are exemplary - He has scored 9 goals in the last 7 games

That said, their ability to come back from huge deficits has already become legendary. They are playing without fear, which in a psychological game like football is exactly where they want to be. They have nothing to lose going into games now, as they are already well on target for survival. All the pressure to perform is on the bigger team. Ranieri's men are just happy to be there, playing good football, scoring goals and winning games. It's hard to play against such a buoyant team on form that have already excelled beyond expectation.

Ranieri's brief for this season would have been loftier than most think. While survival is key for any sophomore season in the English top flight, Leicester's owners will want to emulate clubs like Southampton and Swansea in turning into a mid-table staple by their 3rd season. Leicester are not only meeting this target, they are surpassing it. They have so far scored 1.9 points per game, and at this rate, Leicester will get to 40 points in mid-January; the hallowed Premier League Survival Threshold. Once this is achieved, they can look up the table. As things stand, there won't be much further to look up. Champion's League is still silly talk at this stage, but a 5th or 6th place finish and a Europa League spot is well within Leicester's grasp. Stranger things have happened.

Sheffield United - August Review

Nigel Adkins, Sheffield United's route out of League 1?

At the end of last season, I wrote about Clough's early departure, and how if Sheffield United were going to go forward this season, they needed to get a manager who has a recent record of promotion from League 1, a manager who can get the players we need in the transfer market and push an attacking style of football, win games and get us promoted. Enter Nigel Adkins! Adkins is frankly an incredible appointment, one that shows ambition, a need for a change in strategy and a desire for promotion this season. Over the summer, much has been made of Adkins' previous achievements. The upbeat, forward-thinking ex-physio, the man who stepped up to the plate at Scunthorpe to send them into The Championship, (a huge effort) the man who masterminded Southampton's double promotion back into the Premier League, now plying his progressive, goal-oriented trade in the red half of the Steel City. The guy is just dripping with positivity, which has resonated throughout the club in the few months he has been here. Even the setback of losing Jamie Murphy, arguably one of our best and most consistent players over the past few years was seen as a minor bump on the road in comparison to all that was going on this summer. There is a ever-growing sense amongst the fans that this is finally our year.

After the shock 4-0 away defeat to Gillingham on the first day of the season (Which I and many other fans will be happy to forget) The Blades quickly built up a head of steam. Their performances this month have been really consistent, characterised by a simple set of systems based around a solid 4-4-2 formation. A big problem last season was the lack of goals, something which Adkins has sought to remedy as a priority. Looking at the wealth of forward options The Blades have had just in this first month is promising; 7 games have produced 10 goals with 6 different scorers. This is from an open attacking style of play, executed by a team that create chances and get players in the box. As an aside, the clear pick of the bunch from August's goals was Marc McNulty's bullet strike towards the Kop to seal the win over Blackpool. Coming from a player who is likely to be sidelined in favour of other forwards this season, that's a good sign.

As the month wore on, the results kept coming. Adkins has won every league game since the opening day by a 2 goal margin, keeping 3 clean sheets in the process. The 2 times this month that Sheffield United have lost have been followed by victories a matter of days later. It's easy to slip into a losing streak and drop form, so picking up in the next game is important after a loss. With that in mind, I think the best result this month was the 2-0 away win at Swindon. After losing 3-0 midweek to Fulham and getting 2 red cards in the process it was crucial to bounce back. The fact The Blades managed to keep a clean sheet against a side that slotted 11 goals past them last term makes the achievement sweeter; Last season's promotion rivals put to the sword in an early statement of intent.

One thing I've always found interesting in football is how a new manager can completely turn around a player's form. Che Adams has been a perfect example of this, having flourished early on, scoring a brace to defeat Chesterfield and gaining an instant 1st XI place. He has topped this off during the international break by gaining an England under-21 call-up. His positive attitude, tireless work rate and ability to play up front or out wide has given The Blades options going forward. Adkins has ignited a spark in the young player, enabling him to reach a level of consistency he didn't touch last season. Under Clough, Adams was a perennial squad player, running out as a sub late into the game every now and then, and only gaining a few starts. This seemed odd, as Adams was a Clough signing, and much was made of the amateur non-league player making it to the big time when he came to Bramall Lane, but for some reason, he never slotted into Clough's jigsaw. It's good to see Adkins getting so much out of Adams, and the rest of last season's squad.

Che Adams celebrates after his 2nd goal against Chesterfield

Adkins' summer signings have been astute; Canadian captain David Edgar providing solid support in the back 4, Connor Sammon hitting the ground running with 2 goals and of course bringing the Blades legend Billy Sharp back to Bramall Lane for the 3rd spell of his career in a red and white shirt. There are still clear improvements to be made in the squad, firstly there is a need for a decent back-up goalkeeper, as George Long has proved he is not up to the cut in League 1, but also I feel there is a need for an effective holding player to screen the back 4, a role Michael Doyle fulfilled before his departure this summer. As with last season, the squad often look lightweight in the middle third, losing the midfield physical battle and getting cut through. Doyle was very good at preventing this, and I think Scougall, Baxter, Wallace and others don't quite have what it takes to fulfil that particular role. Overall the squad is in good shape, albeit with some injuries. It will be interesting to see how Brayford and Harris (To my mind the best defenders in the squad) fit in to the set-up once they return to match fitness. There are a number of players out injured (Matt Done especially) that could give The Blades a lot of strength in depth as the season develops.

All in all, this month has been the best start we could have hoped for. Several clean sheets, big wins and bags of goals have marked a strong start to the new season. One stat that I love is that Sheffield United are currently 2nd in the league. The last time they achieved that was for one day at the start of the 13/14 season, and that's only because they played the Friday of the opening day weekend. The last time Sheffield United topped the league at a significant point in the season was in March 2013, now 30 long months and 3 managers ago, so it's good to see them making progress up the league. Surely, it's only a matter of time before Adkins steers the club to the top spot. It's been a fantastic start to the new campaign, and while there's a long way to go until May 8th, we may be looking forward to a successful season at Bramall Lane.

Clough sacked - What next?

Nigel Clough sacked after 19 months in charge

On a sunny day at Wembley in April 2014, Sheffield United fought out an 8-goal semi-final thriller against Hull City, a Premier League side almost 40 places above them in the football league. The Blades came off the wrong side of the 5-3 scoreline, but the occasion capped off a memorable FA Cup run for the League 1 side, in which they overturned several upper-league opponents. Central to this story was Nigel Clough, who cemented his status that day as a club legend, barely 7 months into his role as manager. But one week ago, and just over a year after the glamour and spectacle of the FA Cup semi-final, he was sacked.

Over the past 7 days, there has been much speculation and talk of why Clough has been fired. The fan base is split. Some have wanted Clough out for a while, and have welcomed the news. Others (including myself) have not. This snap decision by the board has provoked argument and counter-argument. One point stands out to me above all others – We’ve been here before.

2 years ago, Sheffield United took the choice to sack Danny Wilson 5 games from the end of his 2^nd season in charge, installing veteran defender Chris Morgan as the interim manager for the rest of the season. I say “took the choice” because they were not forced. Wilson had been doing a good job. The Blades had been in the top 6 all season, and had even topped the table as little as 6 weeks before he was fired. Wilson had only failed to gain promotion the season before by a scuffed penalty in the play-off final, and was building towards a 2^nd promotion campaign. Nevertheless, the board decided that he had to go. Quite what was expected to be gained from this has never been clear. There was an alarming level of confidence from the directors in this decision. To change the regime in such a flippant way, at such a crucial time, and what’s more to have no permanent manager lined up as a replacement was delusional to say the least, but McCabe and the rest sat and smiled as they deflected urgent questions about the club’s future. Sheffield United lost the ensuing play-off campaign, not even being able to overcome Yeovil Town in the semi final.

Danny Wilson was sacked in 2013 under similar circumstances

Skip forward 2 years, and we have a similar situation on our hands at Bramall Lane. Clough has managed to keep Sheffield United solidly in 5^th position for almost the entire season. He has had another cup semi-final, this time a classy double-header against Tottenham Hotspur, a tie which Sheffield United were minutes away from forcing into extra time. The play-off campaign this season, though a failure, was extraordinary – a 5-5 draw in the 2^nd tie marking The Blades down as the losers on the wrong side of a 7-6 aggregate score line. Clough has also enjoyed the highest winning percentage of any permanent Sheffield United manager. These achievements would have been seen as a triumphant season at any other League 1 club. Add these to the FA Cup giant killing achievements and the invincible run of 14 unbeaten games in all competitions from last season, and that’s one really smart looking CV for Clough. All achieved in 19 months. His continued tenure would have given us even more, as Clough would have developed and grown his squad. We’ll never know exactly what his plans were this summer, but he certainly deserved the chance to execute them.

When Nigel Clough stepped into the office at Bramall Lane for his first day as manager of Sheffield United, the club was at the foot of League 1, and with a little under a quarter of the season played, already facing the possibility of relegation. Clough was charged with the task of lifting the club out of the danger zone and consolidating safely. His attitude towards the job was clear. He was going to be here for years, not months. He was going to build the club from the ground up, and instil his own philosophy. He was going to create a legacy. The season and a half he had was just the beginning. Clough needed time to grow, to develop. He has clearly not been given a fair crack of the whip.

I understand why Clough has attracted criticism. Last summer’s transfer dealings were a failure. Clough had several targets that he didn’t manage to acquire. This meant him starting the season with a lightweight strike force, and very limited midfield options. Clough has not had an effective and consistent pair of full backs since Maguire left. Some players have shone in this squad – Murphy, Basham, Reed, McEveley, Done and Kennedy have all had a good season, but most of the other players have been decidedly average.  Clough has chopped and changed throughout the year, not settling on one solid first eleven. All this indecision has lead to patchy squad form, players being played out of position, and a lack of shape on the field. Low confidence has often been a factor, especially at home. A lot of the squad seemed too scared to run at away defenders, to dominate the middle third, to stretch the game.

This season has seen only 10 home league wins. So many points have been dropped from winning positions. Clough can sometimes be tactically obtuse. Sheffield United’s losses this season have been characterised by a familiarly frustrating pattern – A bright opening 30 minutes, taking a lead into half time, then instead of coming out to score more to seal the game, sitting back, inviting pressure and gradually slipping into a slow capitulation to see the opposition nick a winning goal in the final 10 minutes. The away end has erupted in joy at quarter to 5 on far too many Saturday afternoons in the last 10 months. Peterborough, Fleetwood, Barnsley and Crewe, all mediocre teams, all got 3 points at Bramall Lane this season.

But for each of these crushingly predictable defeats, we have had some superb results. Beating a full strength Southampton at home, putting 3 past QPR away. Knocking West Ham out of the League Cup on penalties. Being one of only 2 teams to come to Bristol City and win. The away wins at Doncaster, Barnsley and Bradford. At times Clough oversaw flowing, attacking, positive football. He just couldn’t string enough results together to challenge for the league title.

Chris Basham has played well under Clough

And that’s why I feel that sacking Clough at this stage is far too premature. He deserved at least one more season. Another summer to get the signings in that he wanted. Another season to try to recreate the form he enjoyed towards the end of the 2014 campaign. It seems that the board has not learned from the kamikaze decision to sack Wilson 2 years ago. Back then, it took almost 2 months to find a new manager. When they finally did get someone in, it was David Weir, statistically the worst manager Sheffield United ever had, sacked after a miserable trawl of 13 games. The rest of the season was spent recovering from that dismal start. So it could be argued that the decision to sack Wilson cost us promotion for 2 seasons.

Yet again we see the lack of a plan. One sentence that stood out jarringly in the club's statement following Clough's departure was - “The search for the Club's new First Team Manager will now start and it is hoped that this will result in identifying and recruiting the right candidate within a relatively short period of time” – Which shows there has been no one lined up to take the job. If you’re going to sack a manager that’s got you to a cup semi-final and the play-offs, you should have something big in the works, no? Changing managers now is flipping a coin. We have no idea what is going to happen next.

Whoever will replace Clough, and there are already several names being muttered along the grapevine – Nigel Adkins, Phil Parkinson and Mark Warburton are just a few – the board have laid out a specific and clear message – Promotion, promotion, promotion. Our next manager will have to weigh up the possibility of finishing in the top 5, having a great cup run and still being sacked, because that’s what happened to Clough, and Wilson before him. Sheffield United is becoming known as a place where good managers come to get crucified, and as we are on the brink of our 8^th manager in 7 years, who’s to blame? There’s only so many times you can say you need a change before it starts sounding empty. The board have to take responsibility. They need to employ a strong, positive manager, one who has recent experience of getting promoted from this division, and most importantly, he needs to be given time. Time to fail, time to false start, but also time to experiment, grow and evolve. The next manager needs to be given the chance to express his footballing philosophy throughout all levels of the club. Only with such stability and harmony will we see Sheffield United in The Championship once again.